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Comments 20
The bottom line I think is that this is a low volume rally… some say all summers are marked by low volume. That’s why September/October often result in crashes, especially when other technical and fundamental issues support the likelyhood of a crash. Often before Sept/Oct crashes, deterioration of the markets begin in mid August… with the banks lagging and the Euro possibly topping out again, the rollover could start at anytime. Ford also became a drag yesterday as sales disappointed.
Posted 24 Aug 2010 at 8:42 pm ¶Exhaustion gaps are those that happen near the end of a good up- or downtrend. They are many times the first signal of the end of that move. They are identified by high volume and large price difference between the previous day’s close and the new opening price. They can easily be mistaken for runaway gaps if one does not notice the exceptionally high volume.
Posted 24 Aug 2010 at 9:10 pm ¶@aslkfja it’s a low volume summer rally and I rarely pay attention to market ‘news’ these days unless it is incredibly positive/negative in some way. The economic data in the last month as far as ive seen is sort of drip-drip negative and not enough to spook the markets. Christian is right, we need to wait for an inverted hammer or other clear bearish signal i think.
Posted 24 Aug 2010 at 10:06 pm ¶Can someone explain me why yesterday after three times bad news about the economy and a short downfall of the market, it rallied upwards again. What’s the logic behind this movement? I went through my stoplosses (again) by that movement, but that’s my problem:). You would expect after bad news the markets keeps low for a longer time and not within half an hour at its initial level again.
Posted 24 Aug 2010 at 11:04 pm ¶Yep. You are right, it’s a bearish market. March of the bears. As for the commenter, “you snooze, you lose” applies.
Posted 24 Aug 2010 at 11:11 pm ¶Hi Christian and followers,
Not sure if you guys are following the ECRI data. They are showing very weak signs in the economy presently. According to this article, the ECRI indicators are 100% accurate for the past 45 years. CHeck it out~
*Sharing is Caring
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 12:09 am ¶Plus the COMPQX chart for July appears to be forming a bearish ascending wedge.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 12:28 am ¶@garykofoid good point.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 1:28 am ¶Love your videos
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 1:46 am ¶You sould thank that one guy for the exahaust / break away gap comment. When you have people like me you can get fooled by part truths. By him bringing it up… you were able to answer and calm the wave. (Peter in the bilble only sank when he saw the waves. [it had shaken his faith]) Thanks for the focus.
g-man (gary)
(these questions gave all of us a great opportunity to learn the simplicity of trading. ):-)
@toluca56 Thanks
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 2:34 am ¶@bengaliprince247 We have an article on our blog on the free website which discusses low volume and how it lead to the flash crash and will lead to another one as well.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 3:28 am ¶you just confirmed my analysis “dummy”! lol
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 3:58 am ¶@himakgam Quite right. Why do people take opinions that diverge with their own personally? It’s not like Christian’s videos are going to move the market, and the only reason anyone ever makes profits in trading is because they take the opposite side of a trade with others. Why do people get all emotional? If you have stops, and you get stopped out, no biggie. Wait for the next trade and refine your system.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 4:19 am ¶Short term the market is irrational and very difficult to predict with the precision needed to do well consistently. Medium to long term, I think it’s much easier. You just have to have the patience to see it thru. If you make 30% return per year trading, you’re doing better than most of the best.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 4:52 am ¶Thanks for the video Christian. I look at the posts and wonder why are some people so upset with his interpretation of the market? He is not your investment advisor nor he is there to manage your money. If you find something here to learn, more power to you. If you don’t see a value-just move on. The final decision how to invest our money is upon us. Quit the blame game.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 5:15 am ¶Hi, Thank you, thank GOD, yesterday I bought TZA 29.70, sold today at 31.32 that’s 5% in less than 24 hours! I know that’s a quick in and out again, however it’s more money than I had before! Thank You, have some more TZA and FAZ and few other trades. You have taught me well!
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 5:56 am ¶So far the major indices have only “ripped” back to the middle of their range since the so-called flash crash. Nothing to get bulled up about. I previously posted about late summer rallies. The “money” that runs the markets are floating around on their yachts right now or having satanic cult rituals or something. They’ll be back soon enough.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 6:41 am ¶I think maybe you need to repeat that its for “Smart Investors and Traders.” The Guy didnt hear it the first time
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 6:46 am ¶I like your analysis of the markets. However you keep on mentioning low volume. But Isn’t low volume the norm for this time of the year, after all it is the holiday season.
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 6:52 am ¶Great videos, Christian. I believe that you actually never need to defend your analyses, although I appreciate hearing your rationale. This is a very empirical business, trading. All you need to do is say, give it a month to a month and a half, and the analysis will be proven correct or incorrect. Really, who cares if people disagree presently; as they say, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating.”
Posted 25 Aug 2010 at 7:45 am ¶I think a really cool thing to do would be to present a scoreboard video once a month or so.
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